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How many losses in a row should you expect at your win rate?
Most traders quit a working strategy in the middle of a normal losing streak. Here is how long those streaks get, by win rate.
Short answer
Longer than most people think. Over 250 trades (about a year at one trade a day), a strategy that wins 40% of the time typically has a longest streak of 9 losses in a row, and 1 time in 10 it reaches 13. At 50% it’s typically 7, and at 30% it’s 13. Size every trade so that streak is survivable before you start.
Longest losing streak in 250 trades
| Win rate | Typical longest streak | 1-in-10 worst case | Chance of 8+ in a row | Chance of 12+ in a row |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 13 | 18 | 99% | 66% |
| 40% | 9 | 13 | 82% | 19% |
| 50% | 7 | 10 | 38% | 3% |
| 60% | 5 | 7 | 9% | under 1% |
| 70% | 4 | 6 | 1% | under 1% |
From 40,000 simulated runs of 250 independent trades each. Real trading can be streakier than this, because losing trades bunch together when the market changes character.
What real strategies did
- The midpoint opening range breakout won about 1 in 4 trades and had an 18-trade losing streak.
- The 10AM setup, as taught, lost 46 in a row at one point.
- The 8:30 range model made money and still had 13 losers in a row.
Size for the streak, not the average
- Find your win rate from a tested sample, not your best week.
- Take the 1-in-10 worst case from the table.
- Make sure that many losses in a row stays inside your limits. On a 50K prop account with a $2,000 trailing drawdown, 13 losses must cost less than $2,000, so risk at most about $150 a trade.
Questions
How many losing trades in a row is normal?
It depends on the win rate. Over 250 trades, the typical longest streak is about 7 at a 50% win rate, 9 at 40% and 13 at 30%. One time in ten it gets noticeably longer.
How much should I risk per trade on a prop firm account?
Enough that your worst likely losing streak fits inside the drawdown. With a $2,000 trailing drawdown and a 40% win rate, 13 losses in a row should cost under $2,000, which means about $150 a trade or less.
Does a losing streak mean my strategy stopped working?
Not by itself. Streaks inside the ranges in this table are normal. A streak far longer than the 1-in-10 case, or a change in how the losses happen, is a better reason to review it.
Keep reading
Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “How many losses in a row should you expect at your win rate?” (Oct 31, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/learn/losing-streaks-by-win-rate
Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.