Myth Test #6

The 8:30–9:30 range model: we re-ran 2,211 trades

A free NQ model claims 59% a year. Mark the 8:30–9:30 ET range and its 50% line, let the first 3-minute close after the open pick the side. We re-ran it from 2017.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated Oct 24, 2026

Short answer

It’s real, and it loses 2 out of every 3 trades. Across 2,211 NQ trades (Apr 2017 – Sep 2026) it won 34% with an average of +0.12R per trade after costs and was up in 9 of 10 years. Flipping the signal lost money and a random side did nothing. The catch is the ride: risking 2% per trade made 49% a year with a −58% drawdown, and there were 13 losers in a row.

2,211trades, Apr 2017 – Sep 2026

34%winners

+0.12Raverage trade after costs

9 of 10years up

The rules

Mark the 8:30–9:30 AM ET range and its 50% line.
The first 3-minute close after the 9:30 open picks the side.
Stop at the far edge of the range.
Flat by 3:55 PM.

Model idea shared publicly by @cemarketsolutions. Their 59% a year / −45% claim is as posted and not verified by us.

Is the edge real?

Test	Average trade
Signal as designed	+0.12R
Signal flipped	−0.21R
Random side	about zero

The flip and random tests are what make this one interesting: the direction the model picks matters.

What it does to an account

Risk per trade	Return per year	Max drawdown
2% of equity	49%	−58%
1% of equity	26%	−33%

Along the way there were 13 losing trades in a row. At 2% risk, that streak alone is roughly a quarter of the account.

Our twist

Dropping the trailing stop and holding to the close made more: $38K vs $26K a year on 1 NQ, and it was up in all 10 years.

Method and data

NQ futures 1-minute data, continuous contract, $15 round-trip costs per NQ, flat by 3:55 PM. Compounding results risk a fixed % of equity per trade on MNQ from a $50K start. Hypothetical results.

Questions

Does the 8:30–9:30 opening range 50% model work?

In our test of 2,211 NQ trades from 2017 to 2026 it won 34% with +0.12R per trade after costs and was up 9 of 10 years. Flipping the signal lost −0.21R per trade.

How big are the drawdowns?

Risking 2% per trade produced 49% a year with a −58% drawdown. At 1% risk it was 26% a year with a −33% drawdown. The longest losing streak was 13 trades.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #6: The 8:30–9:30 opening range 50% model” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/8-30-opening-range-50-percent-model

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.