Myth Test #2
Is the opening range breakout profitable on NQ? We tested 2,159 days
The opening range breakout (ORB) is sold as the simplest day trade there is. We ran three versions on every NQ futures session from April 2017 to September 2026.
Short answer
As usually taught, no. On NQ futures from April 2017 to September 2026, about 6 in 10 first breaks of the 9:30–9:45 range failed. The textbook ORB averaged −$1,335 per losing trade and the popular “88% win rate” version lost money. One version held up: stop at the middle of the range and hold to 3:55 PM. It averaged +$2,395 per win and −$745 per loss, but loses about 3 of every 4 trades.
The claim
Mark the first 15 minutes, buy the break of the high or sell the break of the low, and ride the trend. Some versions advertise win rates near 90%.
What price did after the first break
After 9:45 AM ET, price took one of four paths:
| Path after the first break | Share of days |
|---|---|
| Holds (keeps going) | 40% |
| Reverses | 26% |
| Whipsaws | 25% |
| Fades back | 8% |
Only the first path pays a breakout trader, which is why roughly 6 in 10 first breaks fail.
Three versions, side by side
| Version | Rules | Result (1 NQ contract) |
|---|---|---|
| Textbook ORB | Stop at the other side of the range | Average loss −$1,335; worst drawdown −$87k |
| “88% win rate” ORB | Stop 3× wider, target ¼ the size | Wins 8 of 9, but 8 × +$347 can’t cover one −$2,797 loss: loses money |
| Midpoint ORB | Stop at the middle of the range, no target, exit 3:55 PM | Average win +$2,395, average loss −$745; max drawdown about −$45k |
The version that held up: the midpoint ORB
- Mark the 9:30–9:45 AM ET high and low (the 15-minute opening range) on NQ or MNQ.
- Enter on the first break: long above the high, short below the low.
- Put the stop at the middle of the range, not the other side.
- No profit target. Exit at 3:55 PM and let the trend days pay for the rest.
- One trade a day.
To be fair: it loses about 3 of every 4 trades, the longest losing streak was 18 trades, and the result is lumpy. By year, per NQ contract:
| Year | Midpoint ORB |
|---|---|
| 2017 | +$4k |
| 2018 | +$6k |
| 2019 | +$2k |
| 2020 | +$5k |
| 2021 | +$22k |
| 2022 | +$69k |
| 2023 | +$1k |
| 2024 | +$29k |
| 2025 | +$31k |
| 2026 (to Sep 9) | −$19.9k |
One year (2022) produced a large share of the profit, and 2026 is down so far. A strategy that wins 1 in 4 needs position sizing that survives long losing streaks.
Method and data
NQ futures 1-minute data, regular trading hours, April 2017 to September 9, 2026, one contract ($20 per point), $20 per trade for commissions and slippage. One trade per day at most. Opening range = 9:30–9:45 AM ET. MNQ results are one tenth of the dollar figures shown. Historical study; hypothetical results.
Watch the 60-second version
Questions
Does the opening range breakout work on NQ?
Not as usually taught. From 2017 to 2026 about 6 in 10 first breaks of the 9:30–9:45 range failed, and the textbook version averaged −$1,335 per losing NQ contract. A version with the stop at the middle of the range and an exit at 3:55 PM held up, but it loses about 3 of 4 trades.
Why does a high win-rate ORB lose money?
The 88% win-rate version uses a stop three times wider than the target. Eight wins of +$347 each could not cover one −$2,797 loss, so it lost money overall.
Where should the stop go on an opening range breakout?
In our test, the middle of the opening range worked better than the other side of the range: average loss fell to −$745 per NQ contract while average wins were +$2,395.
Keep reading
Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #2: The opening range breakout on NQ” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/opening-range-breakout-nq
Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.