Myth Test #3
The viral 10AM setup, backtested on 9 years of NQ
A reel showed a $110k month from one 10 AM setup. We turned it into fixed rules, used the stop from the video, and ran it on every NQ futures day since 2017.
Short answer
As taught, it lost money. With the 13-point stop from the original video, the setup took 1,853 trades: 475 winners and 1,378 losers, averaging +$678 per win and −$274 per loss, for a total of −$55,180 on one NQ contract. Every year from 2017 to 2025 lost money; 2026 alone made about +$22k, which is why it looks great right now. Wider stops made it worse.
The rules, as shared
- Sweep: price trades past the 10:00 AM open, between 10:00 and 11:00 AM ET.
- Signal: a candle closes back through the line.
- Entry: limit order at the 10:00 AM open.
- Stop: 13 NQ points, the size used in the video.
- Target: the day’s opposite extreme.
This is our fixed-rule version of a setup shared publicly. The creator’s own entries may differ, and their $110k claim is not verified.
Results as taught, and with wider stops
| Stop | Winners | Losers | Avg win | Avg loss | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 pts (as taught) | 475 | 1,378 | +$678 | −$274 | −$55k |
| 20 pts | 602 | 1,251 | +$750 | −$415 | −$67k |
| 30 pts | 718 | 1,135 | +$854 | −$596 | −$63k |
Wider stops turned more trades into winners, but the losses grew faster than the wins.
Why it looks good right now
| Year | As taught (13-pt stop) |
|---|---|
| 2017 | −$2.1k |
| 2018 | −$7.1k |
| 2019 | −$6.5k |
| 2020 | −$3.8k |
| 2021 | −$16.2k |
| 2022 | −$11.5k |
| 2023 | −$4.0k |
| 2024 | −$16.5k |
| 2025 | −$9.8k |
| 2026 (to Sep 9) | +$22.3k |
2017–2025 lost about $77.4k combined. A screenshot from 2026 shows the one good year.
Can it be fixed?
We tried three rule changes, including requiring the sweep to also take out yesterday’s high or low and placing the stop past the sweep wick. Together they cut the sample to 708 trades: 171 winners and 537 losers, averaging +$2,308 and −$660, for +$40,245 on paper. But nudging a single setting turned it back into a loss, which is a warning sign of curve-fitting. Part 2 will stress-test it on unseen data before we call it an edge.
Method and data
NQ futures 1-minute data, regular trading hours, April 2017 to September 9, 2026, one contract ($20 per point), $20 per trade for commissions and slippage. Every regular session in the sample. Hypothetical results; this is our interpretation of a publicly shared setup.
Watch the 60-second version
Questions
Does the 10 AM sweep strategy work on NQ?
Not as taught. With a 13-point stop it took 1,853 trades from 2017 to 2026, won 475 and lost −$55,180 on one NQ contract. Every year from 2017 to 2025 lost money.
Would a wider stop fix it?
No. A 20-point stop lost about −$67k and a 30-point stop about −$63k on one NQ contract, because average losses grew faster than average wins.
Why do strategies like this look profitable on social media?
Recent results can be very different from the long run. This setup made about +$22k in 2026 after losing money in each of the nine previous years.
Keep reading
Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #3: The 10AM setup on NQ” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/the-10am-setup-nq
Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.