Myth Test #7

Sell the wick or wait for the sweep? 9 years of NQ data

A viral reel says never sell the first long upper wick: wait for price to sweep it, then sell. We tested both, plus the opposite, on 9 years of NQ futures.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated

Short answer

Neither selling idea held up on the 5-minute chart. From April 2017 to September 2026, selling the first wick lost −$13.7K and waiting for the sweep lost −$21.4K, with 16 losers in a row. On the 15-minute chart the sweep version made +$15.2K, but on only 38 trades in 9 years, and 2023 produced 57% of it. The surprise: buying the wick instead made money on both charts.

−$13.7Ksell the first wick, 5-min
−$21.4Kwait for the sweep, 5-min
38trades in 9 years, sweep on 15-min
16losers in a row, sweep on 5-min

Three ways to trade the wick

Option5-minute chart15-minute chart
A: sell the first long wick−$13.7K—
B: wait for the sweep, then sell−$21.4K (16 losers in a row)+$15.2K on 38 trades; 2023 = 57% of it
C: buy the wick insteadmade moneymade money

What it means

The rule the reel teaches lost money on the chart most day traders use. The 15-minute result is too thin to trust: 38 trades in nine years, with one year doing most of the work.

Method and data

NQ futures 1-minute data, regular trading hours, April 2017 to September 9, 2026, one contract ($20 per point), $20 per trade for commissions and slippage. Our fixed-rule version of a setup shared publicly; the original reel was shown blurred for commentary. Hypothetical results.

Questions

Should you sell the first long wick on NQ?

In our 2017–2026 test on the 5-minute NQ chart, selling the first wick lost −$13.7K and waiting for a sweep lost −$21.4K on one contract. Buying the wick instead made money.

Does waiting for a liquidity sweep improve the trade?

Not on the 5-minute chart, where it lost −$21.4K with 16 losers in a row. On the 15-minute chart it made +$15.2K, but on only 38 trades.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #7: Sell the wick or wait for the sweep” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/sell-the-wick-or-wait-for-the-sweep

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.