Myth Test #10
Don’t trade the CHoCH, wait for the BOS? 9 years of NQ data
A popular smart-money rule says never trade the first change of character (CHoCH): wait for a lower high and the break of structure (BOS). We tested both on 9 years of NQ futures.
Short answer
True, but the edge is small. On the 15-minute NQ chart from April 2017 to September 2026, trading every CHoCH made +$77K on 1,134 trades with a worst drawdown of −$62K. Waiting for the lower high and the BOS made +$74K on 546 trades with a worst drawdown of −$29K: about the same money, half the trades, half the drawdown. On the 5-minute chart, both versions lost money.
Two ways to trade a change of character
| Version (15-minute chart) | Trades | Total | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| A: trade every CHoCH | 1,134 | +$77K | −$62K |
| B: wait for the lower high, enter on the BOS | 546 | +$74K | −$29K |
| Both versions on the 5-minute chart | — | lost money | — |
What it means
Waiting doesn’t make more money; it skips the CHoCHs that never turn into a real trend, which halves the trades and the drawdown. That’s worth having, but it’s a small edge on one timeframe, not a money machine, and it disappeared on the faster chart.
Method and data
NQ futures 15-minute and 5-minute bars, regular trading hours, April 2017 to September 9, 2026. Swing points need 2 bars on each side (3 on the 5-minute test). CHoCH = first close below the last higher low (mirror for longs). Version A enters on the CHoCH; version B waits for a lower high and enters on the close below the CHoCH low, stop above the lower high. Entries 9:35 AM to 3:00 PM ET, out by 3:55 PM ET. One contract ($20 per point), $20 per trade for costs. Our fixed-rule version of a concept shared publicly; the creator’s own rules may differ. The original post was shown blurred for commentary. Hypothetical results.
Watch the 60-second version
Questions
Is it better to wait for the BOS after a CHoCH?
In our 2017–2026 test on the 15-minute NQ chart, waiting for the BOS made about the same money as trading every CHoCH (+$74K vs +$77K) with half the trades and a worst drawdown of −$29K instead of −$62K. On the 5-minute chart both versions lost.
Does trading every change of character work on NQ?
On the 15-minute chart it made +$77K on 1,134 trades but with a −$62K worst drawdown on one contract. On the 5-minute chart it lost money.
Keep reading
Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #10: Trade the CHoCH or wait for the BOS” (Oct 29, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/choch-or-wait-for-the-bos
Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.