Myth Test
A 75% win rate and 1.7 profit factor on the ORB? We tested 36 versions
A trading reel with 1,400+ comments claims an opening range breakout with “almost a 75% win rate” and a profit factor over 1.7, traded live. The rules are behind a comment-to-DM link, so we tested whether any common version of the ORB can reach those numbers.
Short answer
Not in our test. Across 36 versions of the opening range breakout on NQ futures from 2017 to 2026, the best profit factor was 1.08. Versions with a 79–82% win rate needed a tiny target and lost money or broke even (profit factor 0.91–1.01). Close targets buy a high win rate; far targets can make money but lose more often than they win. No version came close to both claims at once.
What we tested
Every combination of three choices, on every NQ regular session from April 2017 to September 2026:
- Opening range: the first 5, 15 or 30 minutes after 9:30 AM ET.
- Stop: the other side of the range, or its middle.
- Target: 0.25×, 0.5×, 0.75×, 1×, 1.5× or 2× the height of the range.
Entry on the first 1-minute close outside the range before noon, one trade a day, out by 3:55 PM if neither stop nor target is hit.
The trade-off
| Version (range · stop · target) | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Total, 1 NQ contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min · other side · 0.25× | 2,224 | 82.0% | 0.91 | −$43K |
| 15-min · other side · 0.25× | 2,199 | 81.4% | 1.01 | +$8K |
| 30-min · other side · 0.25× | 2,108 | 79.0% | 0.95 | −$43K |
| 30-min · other side · 0.75× | 2,108 | 57.6% | 1.06 | +$83K |
| 30-min · other side · 1.5× | 2,108 | 48.8% | 1.07 | +$111K |
| 15-min · other side · 2× (best profit factor) | 2,199 | 44.0% | 1.08 | +$144K |
As the target moves further away, the win rate falls and the profit factor creeps up, but never past 1.08. The stop at the middle of the range did worse in almost every case (best profit factor 1.06).
What about “dynamic money management”?
Changing your size from trade to trade can’t change how often trades win, and it can’t turn a profit factor near 1.0 into 1.7 unless size happens to be bigger on the winners, which you can’t know in advance. Sizing up after losses also makes the losing streaks hurt more.
Verdict: not reproduced. We can’t test the creator’s private rules, but no common version of the ORB on NQ came close to a 75% win rate and a 1.7 profit factor together. Ask for a full trade list before you believe that combination.
Method and data
NQ futures 1-minute data, regular trading hours, April 2017 to September 9, 2026. Stops and targets followed minute by minute; stop checked first when both fall in the same minute. One contract ($20 per point), $15 per trade for costs. The original claim (Sept 6, 2026) is as posted and not verified; its rules weren’t published. Hypothetical results.
Questions
Can an opening range breakout have a 75% win rate?
Yes, but only with a very small target. In our NQ test, versions with a target of a quarter of the range won 79–82% of trades but lost money or broke even after costs.
What is a realistic profit factor for an ORB on NQ?
Across 36 versions from 2017 to 2026, the best was 1.08, using a 15-minute range, a stop at the other side and a target of 2× the range. It won 44% of trades.
Does position sizing improve an ORB strategy?
Not on its own. Sizing changes how much each trade makes or loses, not how often it wins, and it can’t create an edge that the entries don’t have.
Keep reading
Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test: A 75% win rate and 1.7 profit factor on the ORB?” (Oct 31, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/75-percent-win-rate-orb
Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.