Myth Test #5

The 5-minute-a-day Nasdaq strategy: real, but half the profit came from one year

At 9:30, wait for the first 5-minute candle. Close above the 20 EMA, buy; below, sell. Hold to the close. We ran it on 1,910 days of NQ futures.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated

Short answer

It made money, but not smoothly. Over 1,910 NQ futures days (Jan 2019 – Sep 2026) it won 51% of trades and made +$289K on one contract after costs, beating buying every open and 97% of 1,000 shuffled versions. But 2021, 2022 and 2023 all lost money, the worst drawdown was −$99K, and 2026 alone produced 52% of the profit.

+$289K1 NQ contract, after costs
51%winning days
−$99Kmaximum drawdown
52%of profit from 2026 alone

The rule

  • At 9:30 AM ET, wait for the first 5-minute candle to close.
  • Close above the 20 EMA: buy. Close below: sell.
  • Enter at 9:35, exit at 3:55 PM. No stop.

Results

MeasureResult
Days tested1,910 (Jan 2019 – Sep 2026)
Winning days51%
Total, 1 NQ contract after costs+$289K
Per year vs buying every open$38K vs $13K
Versus 1,000 shuffled versionsbeat 97%
Losing years2021, 2022, 2023
Maximum drawdown−$99K
Share of profit from 202652%

What it means

The rule passes a shuffle test, so the result is unlikely to be pure luck. But it is hard to live with: three straight losing years and a −$99K drawdown on one NQ contract would end most funded accounts long before the good year arrived.

Would you have stuck with it in 2022?

Method and data

NQ futures 1-minute data, continuous contract, 1 NQ, $15 round-trip costs, entry 9:35 AM ET, exit 3:55 PM, no stop. Our fixed-rule version of a strategy shared publicly; the creator’s claim is not verified. Hypothetical results.

Questions

Does the first 5-minute candle and 20 EMA strategy work?

On NQ futures from 2019 to 2026 it made +$289K on one contract after costs and beat 97% of shuffled versions, but 2021–2023 all lost money and the maximum drawdown was −$99K.

Is a 5-minute-a-day trading strategy realistic?

This one was profitable over the full period, but more than half the profit came from 2026 alone. Results that depend on one year are hard to trade through.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #5: The 5-minute opening candle and 20 EMA” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/5-minute-opening-candle-20-ema

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.