Myth Test #8

The 0.146 “exact reversal” level, tested on every NQ swing

A viral reel says one number finds the exact reversal: 0.146. We found every swing with a fixed rule, no hand-picking, and traded the level on 9 years of NQ futures and 2 years of gold.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated

Short answer

No. On NQ 5-minute bars from 2017 to 2026 the 0.146 entry had 447 winners and 2,709 losers: an average win of +$2,932 against an average loss of −$623, or −$119 per trade on one contract, and 0 of 10 years were profitable. Gold on 1-hour bars lost −$104 per trade. Sharp V-shaped swings did even worse (−$170 per trade), and 0.10 or 0.20 lose about the same, so 0.146 isn’t special.

−$119per trade, NQ 5-min
0 of 10years profitable
447 / 2,709winners / losers
−$104per trade, gold 1-hour

Results

TestTradesResult per trade
NQ 5-min, every swing ≥0.8%, 2017–2026447 W / 2,709 L−$119
Gold 1-hour, 2024–2026173 W / 929 L−$104
NQ “sharp V” swings only (done and snapped back within an hour)1,372 (11% won)−$170
NQ bigger V’s (1.5%+)—−$347

Why it looks perfect

In hindsight you know where the swing ended, so the line looks exact. Live, you don’t: the Apr 4, 2025 swing reversed right at the level, and the Nov 21, 2025 swing had the same sharp V and just kept going.

Method and data

Swings of 0.8% or more found by a fixed rule; entry at the 0.146 retracement, stop past the swing start, target the swing end. NQ futures 5-minute bars, 2017–2026, $20 per point with $20 cost per trade; gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars, 2024–2026, $100 per point with $30 cost. Our fixed-rule version of a setup shared publicly; the original reel was shown blurred for commentary. Hypothetical results.

Questions

Does the 0.146 Fibonacci level predict reversals?

Not in our test. Trading the 0.146 level on every NQ swing of 0.8% or more from 2017 to 2026 lost −$119 per trade on one contract, and none of the 10 years was profitable.

Is 0.146 better than other retracement levels?

No. In our test 0.10 and 0.20 lost about the same as 0.146.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test #8: The 0.146 exact reversal level” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/0146-fibonacci-exact-reversal

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.