Myth Test

Should you copy Congress’s stock trades? We tested 5,940 buys

“Congress beats the market, so copy their trades.” We copied every House stock purchase the day after it was filed and held for six months.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated

Short answer

No. Copying 5,940 House stock purchases the day after each filing returned −1.6% versus the S&P 500 over six months, and only 42% beat the index. A few members did well (Pelosi +6.2%, Tim Moore +7.6%) and others did badly (McClain Delaney −15.1%), but there was no way to know in advance which ones.

5,940House stock buys copied
−1.6%vs S&P 500 over 6 months
42%of copied trades beat the index

How we tested it

For every stock purchase disclosed in House Periodic Transaction Reports (PTRs) from 2023 to October 2026, we bought the stock the day after the filing became public and compared its 6-month return with the S&P 500.

Results

MeasureResult
Purchases copied5,940
Average 6-month return vs S&P 500−1.6%
Share that beat the S&P 50042%
Nancy Pelosi’s filings+6.2%
Tim Moore’s filings+7.6%
April McClain Delaney’s filings−15.1%

What it means

Filings arrive weeks after the trade, and the results are spread wide. Picking the winners after the fact is easy; picking them in advance is the hard part.

Method and data

House PTR filings 2023 – October 2026, prices from Yahoo Finance. Entry the day after each filing; 6-month holding period; returns measured relative to the S&P 500. Hypothetical results.

Questions

Does copying Congress stock trades beat the market?

Not in our test. Copying 5,940 House stock purchases the day after each filing returned −1.6% relative to the S&P 500 over six months, and only 42% of trades beat the index.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “Myth Test: Copying Congress stock trades” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/research/copy-congress-stock-trades

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.