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How to trade CPI day (and other big news days)

Inflation and jobs reports move the Nasdaq more in five minutes than most days do in an hour. A few simple rules keep one candle from deciding your month.

Trading Decisions Lab · Updated

Short answer

Three rules: be flat before 8:30 AM ET, let the first candle close, then trade your plan. On October 14, 2026, a hotter-than-expected CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected) sent Nasdaq futures down about 242 points in 5 minutes, roughly $4,845 per NQ contract. On back-to-back data days, cut size in half, let the first 15 minutes print and set your stop before the number.

~242 ptsNQ drop in 5 minutes after CPI, Oct 14, 2026
~$4,845per NQ contract in that candle
½ sizeon stacked data days

What happened on October 14, 2026

September CPIActualExpected
Headline, year over year3.7%3.6%
Core2.6%2.5%

Nasdaq futures fell about 242 points in five minutes. The next morning, September PPI came in at +1.3% for the month versus about 0.5% expected: two hot inflation prints back to back.

Three rules for CPI day

  1. Be flat before 8:30 AM ET. A stop doesn’t guarantee your price in a fast market.
  2. Let the first candle close. The first move is often the most violent and least reliable.
  3. Then trade your plan, with the stop and size decided before you enter.

Stacked data days

When reports land on consecutive days, our rule is: cut size in half, let the first 15 minutes print, and set the stop before the number.

Good news, bad news

A weak jobs report can send stocks up. In October 2026 September payrolls came in at +29K versus about 90K expected, and the Nasdaq hit a record because the odds of a rate hike fell (from about 70% to about 20%, per CME FedWatch). On news days, don’t ask “good or bad?” Ask “what does this change for the Fed?”

Data: BLS CPI and PPI releases (Oct 14–15, 2026), CME FedWatch, consensus via Trading Economics; NQ moves from 5-minute futures data.

Questions

What time is CPI released?

The US CPI report is released at 8:30 AM Eastern time, before the stock market opens. Nasdaq futures trade through the release.

Should I trade during CPI?

A cautious approach is to be flat before 8:30 AM ET, let the first candle close, then trade your plan. On Oct 14, 2026, NQ moved about 242 points (about $4,845 per contract) in five minutes after CPI.

Keep reading

Cite this: Trading Decisions Lab, “How to trade CPI day” (Oct 24, 2026). https://www.tradingdecisionslab.com/learn/how-to-trade-cpi-day

Simulated backtest. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading; see the full disclaimer. Past results don’t guarantee future results. Educational only, not financial advice. Futures are leveraged and you can lose more than your deposit.